Burning Issue - Weapon or flare?

Or perhaps white phosphorus can be called a weapon with flare, if you are referring to the smokescreen artillery shells that the Israeli army deployed in Gaza. Since January, the use of "Willy Pete" in a densely packed battlefield surrounded by a fence has been contentious. Human Rights Watch and some UN members are calling for a war crimes trial. Israel calls for an internal (eternal?) inquiry.

White phosphorus, known as Willy Pete, ignites when exposed to the air. It is not banned by international law so long as it is used to create a smoke screen to protect advancing troops or to illuminate targets. However, the 1980 Geneva treaty stipulates it must not be used as an offensive weapon in densely-populated areas, where civilians can sustain severe burns.

Ugly outcomes result when this so-called precision munition is misused.

Meanwhile, three months after Operation Cast Lead dropped its first bombs, the Israel Defence Forces issued a body count of its own for Palestinian casualties during its latest Gaza offensive. Israeli tallies say that among 1,166 Palestinians killed, 709 had been identified as "Hamas terror operatives, among them several from various other terror organisations". Another 162 men have not been yet attributed to any organisation, while 295 "uninvolved Palestinians" had died, including 89 minors and 49 women.

These numbers are at marked variance with those collected by the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. It says 1,417 Palestinians died, including 926 civilians – 313 of whom were minors.

Local press reports showed outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert absolutely gloating with pride about his air force taking out a smuggling convoy in the Sudanese desert, which was reportedly on its way to supply Hamas with long range missiles capable of striking Tel Aviv, via the tunnels.

Olmert Lays Cards on the Table- but how is the deck stacked after the Gaza War?

Here is what Obama's ace Middle-East envoy was told by Lame duck PM Ehud Olmert, according to the Israeli press today, when the Israeli leader laid all his cards on the table:

Israel promised to remove 60,000 settlers from the West Bank; to withdraw to the 1967 borders with border revisions so that it keeps the large settlement blocs and in return, to give the Palestinians equal territory in southern Israel; to divide Jerusalem and to transfer East Jerusalem neighborhoods to Palestinian sovereignty while establishing an international authority for the holy places; to ensure territorial contiguity for the Palestinian state by means of elevated or underground roads between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; Israel would not take in any refugees. Shimon Shiffer notes that political figures realize that this news requires all the candidates for prime minister to relate to it, particularly Kadima candidate Tzippi Livni, as she was a full partner to the negotiations.

The Palestinian Authority is said to have backed away from the negotiation table once they learned that Israeli elections are to be held in February. The West Bank Palestinians indicated they are unwilling to trust the current negotiators because it is the incoming government who would be implementing any promises--- or not. But there are signs that political pragmatists may be prevailing inside Gaza after three weeks of war, and a lasting truce may be hammered out if Hamas "unclenches its fist", in the parlance of the new US president, and cuts a deal. Without crossings open for trade as well as aid, the tunneling on the southern border will be almost impossible to stop.

"We want to be part of the international community," Hamas leader Ghazi Hamad told The Associated Press at the Gaza-Egypt border, where he was coordinating Arab aid shipments. "I think Hamas has no interest now to increase the number of crises in Gaza or to challenge the world."... Hamas politician Mushir Al-Masri, a staunch hard-liner, sounded a conciliatory note."We have our hands open to any country ... to open a dialogue without conditions," he said — clarifying that does not include Israel.

Proxies definitely are needed in these complex negotiations between politicians who won't speak to one another. Olmert also said that Israel would refuse to open the crossings into Gaza as long as the Franco-Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, is a Hamas hostage. Many Palestinians feel he is their trump card, and the only motivation for Israeli

It's instructive to look at the most recent fallout from the vaunted Northern Ireland peace agreements, for which special Middle East envoys George J Mitchell and Tony Blair have garnered enormous prestige as resolvers of blood feuds. Blood money may not be the way to buy peace or reconciliation, it turns out. In Belfast, relatives of IRA victims are saying "Not so fast" about accepting across-the-board payments of 12,000 pounds from the government.

Yesterday, a chaos of grief and recrimination re-erupted at a news conference after the announcement of payments to relatives of all 3700 people killed in "The Troubles". It is not so easy to resolve 30 years of sectarian violence that blighted Northern Ireland. The payment scheme was to include families of bungling IRA bombers who blew themselves up. On hearing this, some Protestants went ballistic, screaming at Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams, a paramilitary-turned-politician. (The violence so far has been verbal, thankfully, but this does not bode well for a peace settlement to endure.)



Cards may be on the table, but the house of cards that shuffling diplomats are constructing threatens to collapse at any moment. ANd we wonder what is tucked up the sleeves of the various players. Oy veh.

Apparition of Matriarch Rachel protected IDF soldiers inside Gaza, top Rabbis claim

Prayer: It's not exactly the kind of secret weapon that the human rights activists complain about. But it seems to be effective. Some quarters assert that the military outcome in Gaza represents a triumphal Holy War...for the Israelis.

Secular soldiers may roll their eyes, but two prominent religious leaders-- former Chief Rabbi Mordechai Eliyahu and Rabbi Ovadia Yosef of the Shas party-- both have declared that the biblical matriarch Rachel was sent to help Israeli ground troops during Operation Cast Lead. Battle tales of a gentle woman warning soldiers away from booby-trapped buildings and sniper nests have been circulating now that troops have been redeployed to this side of the border fence. Some say she shouts in Arabic, others that she whispers in Hebrew. Hallucination, apparition, holy spirit, night goggle optical illusion, whatever: the tale has been bandied about for a fortnight in synagogues, on radio, on buses and in bars. Are sleep-deprived soldiers confounding this with the otherworldly ladies in the animated Waltz with Bashir? (That's another lopsided battle from decades ago.)
Yedioth Ahronoth reports how Shas's spiritual leader described Rachel's apparition during the conflict. :

"The soldiers arrived at a house and wanted to go inside. There were three armed terrorists waiting for them there.

"And then a beautiful young woman appeared before them and warned: Don't enter the house, there are terrorists there, be careful.

- "Who are you?"

- "What do you care who I am," she said, and whispered – "Rachel."

The rabbi continued to describe how the soldiers indeed found the terrorists inside and killed them. The three were carrying guns, just like the woman said.

"Mother Rachel was called to the place, 'Go save your sons.' Ah, praised be His name! God redeems and rescues, and sends angels to save the people of Israel. How we should thank God," Rabbi Yosef concluded.

The rabbi also credited Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for funding Torah studies.
"Had it not been for that – we would not be alive," he said

As founder and spiritual leader of Shas, Rabbi Yosef is held in almost saintly regard by hundreds of thousands of Jews of Middle Eastern and North African origin.

Earlier this week, former Israeli Chief Rabbi Mordechai Eliyahu had confirmed this weird mystical rumor, saying, "The story is true. I sent her." Despite frail health, the ultra-Orthodox octogenarian had prayed repeatedly at Rachel's Tomb in Bethlehem.

Who needs white phosphorus?

Addendum: There have been calls to fire Rabbi Avi Ronzki, a Brigadier General in the army, for his latest devotional pamphlet which was distributed to soldiers before they went to fight in Gaza. "Go Fight My FIght" was condemnend as hate literature by "Breaking the Silence", an activist group of former Israeli combatants.

In one section, Rabbi Aviner compares Palestinians to the Philistines, a people depicted in the Bible as a war-like menace and existential threat to Israel.

In another, the army rabbinate appears to be encouraging soldiers to disregard the international laws of war aimed at protecting civilians, according to Breaking the Silence, the group of Israeli ex-soldiers who disclosed its existence. The booklet cites the renowned medieval Jewish sage Maimonides as saying that "one must not be enticed by the folly of the Gentiles who have mercy for the cruel".

Ceasefire announced unilaterally

Wire reports say:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says Israel will unilaterally halt its 22-day offensive against Hamas at midnight GMT but keep troops on the ground in Gaza for the time being. (Up to 96 hours)
Government leaders voted to stop the assault during an emergency security meeting Saturday. Shortly before the meeting began, Hamas vowed to keep fighting until Israel pulled its forces out of Gaza.

More than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed since the Israeli offensive began on Dec. 27, according to Palestinian and U.N. officials. [And more than 5000 wounded.]At least 13 Israelis have also died.

Four of them were killed by "Friendly Fire". And what's the point of all this brutality? Rockets still are raining on southern Israel. No triumphalism, fellas. If anything, this bloody three weeks has strengthened Hamas. And brought world opinion against Israel for the use of phosphorous in crowded urban areas. Hey, there are three hours before the deadline looms, so the killing continues.

Says the BBC:

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has offered British naval resources to help monitor events in the Gaza conflict and stop weapons being smuggled in.He wants to help ensure protection and monitoring of the crossings into Gaza.

Mr Brown said: "We will do everything we can to prevent the arms trading at the root of the problems."
Israeli is to unilaterally halt offensive military activities in the Gaza Strip three weeks after operations began, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said.

Mr Olmert's announcement came in a televised address following a late-night cabinet meeting.
He said Israel's operation in Gaza had fully achieved its aims, with Hamas badly damaged militarily and in terms of infrastructure.

Earlier, a Hamas spokesman said it would fight until its demands were met, including an Israeli withdrawal.
Mr Brown said he had been involved in talks with Mr Olmert and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas.
"Germany, France and Great Britain have just sent a letter to Israel and Egypt to say they will do everything we can to prevent arms trafficking," he said."We're prepared to help move children, to take them out of the area so they can be treated elsewhere.
"We're also determined that we do everything in our power to deal with unexploded bombs so that people feel more secure in the Gaza area."

He promised that Britain would be increasing its humanitarian aid over the next five years.
Shadow defence secretary Liam Fox criticised the prime minister's offer of naval resources, saying he "must stop grandstanding and committing our already over-stretched forces to more and more missions while reducing their resources".
Mr Brown is considering an invitation to attend an international summit on Sunday in Egypt about the conflict.
Staged at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheikh, it will be co-chaired by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France.

The Palestinian health ministry in Gaza says 1,193 people have been killed so far, including 410 children and 108 women, since the conflict began on 27 December.There were 5,300 people wounded, including 1,600 children, the ministry said.
Thirteen Israelis, mostly soldiers, have been killed during the campaign.

Gaza bleeds under Israeli airstrikes

Safa, a young woman friend in Gaza City, shares her first impressions of this morning's airstrikes which killed more than 229 people and wounded at least 700 more. The "lull" is well and truly over. This is the most carnage in a single day of conflict for decades, according to local reports.

Gaza Today

I've never seen anything like this. It all happened so fast but the amount of death and destruction is inconceivable, even to me and I'm in the middle of it and a few hours have already passed. I think 15 locations were hit during the air raid on Gaza City. [some Israelis sources said 150 targets were struck] The images are probably not broadcast in US media. There are piles and piles of bodies in the locations that were hit. As you look at them you can see that a few of the young men are still alive, someone lifts a hand here, and another raise his head there. They probably died within moments because their bodies are burned, most have lost limbs, some have their guts hanging out and they're all lying in pools of blood. Outside my home, (which is close to the universities) a bomb fell on a large group of young men, university students, they'd been warned not to stand in groups, it makes them an easy target, but they were waiting for buses to take them home. This was about 3 hours ago 7 were killed, 4 students and 3 of our neighbors kids, teenagers who were from the same family (Rayes) and were best friends. As I'm writing this I heard a funeral procession go by outside, I looked out the window and it was the 3 Rayes boys, They spent all their time together when they were alive, and now their sharing the same funeral together. Nothing could stop my 14 year old brother from rushing out to see the bodies of his friends laying in the street after they were killed. He hasn't spoken a word since.
A little further down the street about an hour earlier 3 girls happened to be passing by one of the locations when a bomb fell. The girls bodies were torn into pieces and covered the street from one side to the other.

These are just a couple of images that I've witnessed. In all the locations people are going through the dead terrified of recognizing a family member among them. The city is in a state of alarm, panic and confusion, cell phones aren't working, hospitals and morgues are backed up and some of the dead are still lying in the streets with their families gathered around them, kissing their faces, holding on to them. Outside the destroyed buildings old men are kneeling on the floor weeping. Their slim hopes of finding their sons still alive vanished after taking one look at what had become of their office buildings.

At least 160 people dead in today's air raid. That means 160 funeral processions, a few today, most of them tomorrow probably. To think that yesterday these families were worried about food and heat and electricity. At this point I think they -actually all of us- would gladly have Hamas sign off every last basic right we've been calling for the last few months forever if it could have stopped this from ever having happened.

The bombing was very close to my home. Most of my extended family live in the area. My family is ok, but 2 of my uncles' homes were damaged, another relative was injured.
I don't know why I'm sending this. It doesn't even begin to tell the story on any level. Just flashes of thing that happened today that are going through my head.

The Arab League is summoning an emergency meeting to brainstorm how to respond to such bloodshed as the Israeli leaders threaten wider attacks.

When Izzy visited there in early November, the IDF tanks had rolled in and killed a dozen people, and everyone was glumly predicting more Israeli military action before January. And here you go.

According to the Financal Times, Ehud Olmert, the lame duck leader, is under intense pressure both from within the government and from the rightwing opposition to order a military offensive against Gaza.

Until recently, the prime minister seemed reluctant to follow the advice of his hawkish critics, possibly out of concern for the expected high casualties and anticipating a negative response around the world.

Over the past days, however, Israeli political and military leaders have increasingly presented an attack on Gaza as inevitable. Gabi Ashkenazi, the chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces, said on Thursday that "this reality cannot be allowed to continue and we will need to use our full force to hit the terrorist infrastructure".

Israeli media reported yesterday that the army was preparing for a "limited" operation in the Gaza Strip, combining air strikes and small-scale incursions.

The conflict with Hamas has also increasingly come to dominate the early phase of the election campaign, which will last until polling day on February 10.

When politics gets personal, Israel suffers. Well, with guys like these in charge...

It's the opposite of the Republican convention tagline in Minneapolis/St Paul. Because of graft at the top, in Israel these days, country comes last, concludes Ben Caspit in today's Hebrew daily, Ma’ariv. It's a heartfelt rant, which sheds a light on the rancour inside the leadership. English translation below:

It is difficult to believe that not long ago they yearned for each other, conducted a torrid love affair behind Amir Peretz’s back and counted the days until they could unite publicly. Here they are, the two Ehuds, the prime minister and the defense minister, walking together towards a common future. Ha.
Their common future looks today like Hell. They are immersed in a sea of toxic gastric juices, giving each other grief, sitting opposite each other in the cabinet meeting with burning, terrifying eyes, pecking at each other’s livers and saying things about one another that are hard to imagine. Barak has succeeded in causing Olmert to again like, a little bit, sometimes, Tzippi Livni. Olmert will yet return Barak to the arms of Shimon Peres. Yes, things are that bad.
The problem is that both of them are right. Barak was right when he forced Olmert to vacate the scene, Olmert is right in what he says and thinks about Barak. This is neither the first time, nor the last, that our state leadership looks like a street fight between gangs in Harlem. It happened to Rabin and Peres, it happened to Bibi and Mordechai (and Levy, and Meridor, and many more), it happened to Barak and Ramon (and Levy, and Sarid, and everyone), it happened to Sharon and Bibi, it happened to Shamir, it happened to Ben-Gurion, it happened to Eshkol, it happened to Begin. It will happen to everyone.
The system of government in force here is destructive, impossible, it does not enable governing, decision-making, making long-term plans. The system makes everything personal, here and now. Everything is conditional. Every morning anew you have to count hands, bribe your way to the end of the day. No one is willing to see the other succeed at anything. Barak will not let Olmert make peace with the Syrians, because he wants to do it himself. Everyone makes their personal calculations. There is also a country here, but in the existing system the country comes last. Long live the primaries.
Besides that, yesterday was a sad day. In the cabinet meeting, and in general. A day of a sweeping police recommendation to file an unprecedented indictment against Israel’s prime minister. Eight o’clock in the evening, like clockwork, upon the start of the news editions, was also the hour of the recommendation. The public has long since lost its confidence in the prime minister, in his government, but also in the rest of the systems. The police, for example. The rule of law. Everyone, in the end, has their eye on 8:00 PM. And then too, what was published is far from what will happen. We are still waiting for the indictment against [president] Moshe Katsav for rape. Olmert will be indicted, that is clear, the question is for what, bribery? It’s not certain that it will be for that. But what difference does it make.
What was Olmert hinting at when he spoke about Barak’s sensitive leaks? About his damage to security? Two things are burning up the prime minister: The first is the fact that Barak said that Olmert had delayed the truce in Gaza when the reality, says Olmert, is the opposite. Barak, in his insane paranoia, was opposed to convening the security cabinet, and preferred to decide everything alone, just with Olmert, in a secret partnership.
The second thing is related to covert operations, in which Barak is trying to forcibly take credit he does not deserve. In Olmert’s drawer lie transcripts of recordings of discussions and work meetings that prove how Barak twists reality in his favor. Olmert tossed these transcripts in Barak’s face, but what does it matter now. It’s all history. So is Olmert.
This coming Wednesday, US [envoy] General Jones is supposed to come to Israel, in an attempt to organize the bottom line in advance of the end of George Bush’s term, with regard to the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. The Americans very much want to make a dramatic statement at the UN General Assembly session towards the end of September, they are talking about a presidential address, a joint document, a declaration of one kind or another, various formats and ideas. They want to promote this with the Israeli government, but where is the Israeli government? There is no Israeli government.
There is only Armageddon, investigations, leaks, reports, clashes, passions, envy, hatred and conflicting interests of candidates for the primary and just plain candidates. There is no law and no judge. A retired Supreme Court justice recommends on television that cabinet ministers receive psychological therapy, and a prime minister all but strangles his defense minister before his astounded ministers, and his defense minister, the same evening, at a gathering of the Labor Party (there is such a thing) in Haifa, reminds us: “Don’t forget, we’re all brothers.” As if we had forgotten.

Cartoon of Ehud Olmert in criminal mode by Ben Heine.

Israeli Defence Chief Barak denies sleaze

It's not only that stateside Barack who's in the news with his lovely wife. Israeli's Barak has been getting coverage too, but not quite as adulatory. (The Baraks' back-story is quite unusual: they wed 40 years after they first met, and ditched their respective spouses to do so. The couple is pictured on their wedding day last summer, above.) The Independent's Matthew Bell recaps the latest twist in the tawdry tale:

Poll ratings for Israel's Labour Party are in freefall following a sleaze scandal involving cash-for-access, Nili Priel, the wife of Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, is alleged to have offered to set up meetings between decision-makers and foreign investors in exchange for cash.

The claim was made by the TV news station Channel 10, which showed a document issued by Mrs Priel's consultancy company, promoting her networking skills. It said: "There are 800-900 senior decision-makers in Israel. Mrs Priel knows most of them personally." The business was shut down immediately after the broadcast, but not before her husband suffered a significant slide in his ratings. According to one poll, if elections were held now, Labour would win only 12 seats in the Knesset. It currently has 20.

Mr Barak has denied the allegations , and claimed his wife's decision to close her company was "to prevent attempts, no matter how groundless, to delegitimise me." As Labour Party leader, he should be a contender to take over from Ehud Olmert, when he steps down as Prime Minister next month, after charges of corruption.

Grisly Swap a humiliaton, just tears and tension

Thousands of mourners turned out for the military funerals of the two returned IDF recruits, Goldwasser and Regev, whose capture sparked the Second Lebanese war in 2006. Listed as Missing in Action for two years, the youths came back in coffins. Furious Israelis denounced this capitulation to Nasrullah. There's no compelling reason to keep kidnapped combatants alive if the other side gets five live ones and 200 dead comrades back in bits. So yesterday was a day of humiliation, writes Robert Fisk in the Independent.

Humiliation most of all for the Israelis. After launching their 2006 war to retrieve two captured soldiers, they killed more than a thousand Lebanese civilians, devastated Lebanon, lost 160 of their own – most of them soldiers – and ended up yesterday handing over 200 Arab corpses and five prisoners in return for the remains of the two missing soldiers and a box of body parts.

For the Americans who have supported the democratically elected Lebanese government of Fouad Siniora, it was a day of hopelessness. For Mr Siniora himself, along with the President and all the surviving ex-prime ministers and presidents of Lebanon, and the leader of the Druze community and the country's MPs and Muslim religious leaders, and bishops and higher civil servants, and the heads of all the security services – along, of course, with the UN's representative – were at Beirut airport to grovel before the five prisoners whom Hizbollah had freed from Israel. They were flown north by the Lebanese army's own helicopters.

As for Hizbollah, they staged a mighty pageant of leaping cavalry horses and massed bands and dabkeh dances as Lebanon's Shia imams and their invited Sunni sheikhs and Druze notables sweated in their heavy robes throughout the day's 37C temperatures on the border. But the Israelis, it seemed, were in no hurry. Well aware that Hizbollah had constructed a theatrical homecoming for both the living and the dead, they delayed the first 12 coffins for five hours and then the five living prisoners for another four hours. By this time, the camouflage-clad horse riders – including a long-haired Che Guevara lookalike – and their green-clothed mounts had long finished cantering and the dabkeh dancers had run out of breath and the bagpiper – yes, a real, moaning bagpiper – had run out of puff and even the white-scarved honour guard was wilting in the heat. Their discomfort was exquisite.

And there was a certain sleight of hand in all this. Mr Nasrallah had promised to retrieve the bodies of Palestinian "martyrs", and they included the remains of 19-year-old Dalal Moghraby, which were supposedly stacked on the first lorry to cross the border yesterday. She was the girl who led 11 Palestinian and Lebanese gunmen in an attack on the Israeli coast road north of Tel Aviv. Cornered by the Lebanese army, she decided to fight it out. Thirty-six people died and a surviving videotape shows an Israeli agent, a certain Ehud Barak – yes, the man who is now Israel's Defence Minister – firing shots into her body and dragging her across a road. Mr Barak was one of the Israeli cabinet members who voted for the return of her corpse yesterday. But the Palestinians, it turned out, did not want their dead returned to Lebanon. Dalal Moghraby's mother Amina Ismail, for example, wished her remains to lie where she was buried in Israel – the land which she and millions of other refugees still regard as part of Palestine. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command said it wanted its dead "martyrs" to remain on "Palestinian land" as they would have wished, and asked Hizbollah to exclude them from the returning corpses. No such luck. For Hizbollah had other ideas and – with the agreement of the Israelis, of course – brought them back to the land of their exile.

History lay piled in layers yesterday: a long-ago murder in Israel and the release of the killer who now, courtesy of the Israeli prison system, speaks fluent Hebrew and English; the body of a Palestinian girl whose killings on the Tel Aviv coast road provoked Israel's first invasion of Lebanon in 1978 (total dead about 2,000) as surely as Hizbollah's capture of two soldiers prompted the bloodbath of Israel's revenge (total dead about 1,200). But what would this matter to Mr Nasrallah in his hour of final triumph?

Once more, despite Hizbollah's capture of west Beirut earlier this year and the gun battles that broke out across Lebanon (total dead 65), he has recaptured his old popularity as the only man with the only army to stand up to Israel's legions. And there will most assuredly be another war. By the roadside south of Tyre yesterday, there was a huge poster of an Israeli warship struck by a Hizbollah missile in 2006, burning fiercely. "And more to come," the caption announced, archly.

I found Hizbollah's exhausted cavalry clopping north, their wilting riders – including Che – lolling in their saddles, the tired horses veering across the road. So this was what the war was all about.

Addendum: Last night, someone vandalized the car of my lovely friend Ana,while it was parked in Jerusalem. Spraypainted graffiti (in English) scrawled "we love hizbollah" and the name of Samir Kuntar, the cold-blooded man who had been responsible for the death of an Israeli father and his two children in 1979 and walked free yesterday.

Israelity bites.

Shooting stops Sarkozy farewell fest dead

"Shalom, we had a blast!"

Er, well, at least up to the time that a guard killed himself Tuesday in the middle of a farewell ceremony at Tel Aviv's Ben-Gurion airport. The security was tight for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, his wife Carla Bruni, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, President Shimon Peres and other state dignitaries. Police spokesman Shlomi Sagi said the guard died in an apparent suicide, and police denied an attempted assassination attempt on Sarkozy.

However, a conflicting report said the soldier apparently fell from a vantage point he was occupying on a high building, from where he was securing the event, and the bullet that killed him misfired from his M-16 rifle.

According to Israel Radio, the incident happened no more than 200 meters from where Olmert was standing.

Initially, the prime minister's security personnel withdrew their handguns and rushed Olmert and Peres to bullet-proof cars, while Sarkozy and his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy were rushed to the French president's plane. The shooting occurred while a military band was playing, and the leaders apparently didn't hear anything.

When the incident ended Olmert and Peres boarded Sarkozy's plane to bid the French president farewell.

It was not immediately clear whether the soldier died from the impact of the fall or from the misfired bullet.

The incident brought the ceremony to an abrupt end.

Some jested that the security guard lost his footing while straining to see Madame Carla, the French first lady, who has had a Jackie Kennedy dazzle on the populace at large. Israel Radio said the soldier who was shot was stationed 100 meters to 200 meters away. Two women soldiers who witnessed the shooting were treated for shock, the radio said.

Israel's volunteer medical service Zaka said the soldier apparently committed suicide. But other media reports said he may have fainted from the heat, discharging his gun accidentally.

There was no immediate word on the soldier's condition.

Cybergame probes Olmert probe

Click below for the latest interactive current affairs roleplay from playthenewsgame.com. The game showcases how the Israeli Prime Minister may approach his fifth corruption scandal, the day after the Defense Minister Ehud Barak threatened to pull out of the coalition and bring down the government unless the PM resigns. (This of course would derail any peace process.) But for now, Olmert seems defiant and determined to hold onto power. Cross-examination will not take place until July, after all. But the testimony of the New York millionaire Morris Talansky is explicit: envelopes stuffed with $150,000 cash. Outstanding loans. The cigars and big fountain pens that Olmert tended to blow his cash on are obvious phallic symbols, noted at least one of Jerusalem's certified geniuses. And going down in a submarine as Uncle Morris spilled the secrets surely is open to Freudian interpretation too. Murky waters ahead? Anyone need a periscope ? Watch this space. Many think that the "Prince of the Likud" will wriggle free again. Others point out that if you change one letter of the name Talansky, you get the Hebrew word for Hangman.
Bring it on.

Sleaze and scandal in Israeli politics

* Omri Sharon, son of ex-prime minister Ariel Sharon, began a seven-month prison term in February 2008 after conviction on campaign funding violations. His father is mentioned in the inquiries but has not been charged.

* Finance minister, Avraham Hirchson, resigned in July 2007 under suspicion of embezzling millions from a union he used to run.

* Israel's President, Moshe Katsav, forced to resign in June 2007 amid rape and sexual harassment charges.

* Olmert ally, Haim Ramon, convicted in March 2007 of forcibly kissing a female soldier. After a light sentence, Ramon returns to Olmert's cabinet as Vice Premier.

* President Ezer Weizman is forced to resign in 2000 under suspicion of accepting money from a businessman.

* Prime Minister Ehud Barak and aides suspected in 2000 of campaign finance irregularities. No charges are filed.

* Decorated general Yitzhak Mordechai resigns from cabinet in 2000 after being charged with sexually assaulting female workers. He is convicted and given suspended sentence.

* Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspected in 1997 of engineering appointment of attorney general in exchange for support from the Shas party, but is not charged.

* Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin resigns in 1977 before an election in which his wife is found to have an illegal foreign currency account in the US.

Urgent Email from Ersatz Israel

Hmmm...could there perhaps be a Nigerian twist in this sleazy tale of Slim-Fast and fat envelopes?
According to Jameel, over at the clever Muqata blog, shortly before the Prime Minister's rapprochement with Syria was announced with full fanfare from Turkey, the email below had been making the rounds:

Urgent Email from Olmert
Got this by email a few minutes ago...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ehud Olmert
Date: Tue, May 20, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Subject: urgent
To: Jameel Rashid


From: PM Ehud Olmert

Greetings from Jerusalem

Before I introduce myself, I wish to inform you that this letter is not a hoax mail and I urge you to treat it serious. We want to transfer to overseas account (30,000.000 NIS) Thirty million New Israeli Shekels from a prime Bank here in Israel. I want to ask you, if you are not capable to quietly look for reliable and honest person who will be capable and fit to provide either an existing bank account or to set up a new Bank a/c immediately to receive this money, even an empty a/c can serve to receive this money, as long as you will remain honest to me till the end for this important business trusting in you and believing in God that you will never let me down either now or in future.

I am PM Ehud Olmert, presently the Prime Minister of Israel. Potentially in the course of an audit next week, it will be discovered that I have a floating fund in an account opened in the bank in 1990, in which I regularly deposited envelopes full of cash. I discovered that with the audit next week, if I do not get this money out urgently it will be forfeited for nothing.

The official owner of this account is my wife Aliza, a great artist and a resident of Jerusalem, who unfortunately never had any art skills, and it shows it what she produces.

While we would have claimed that the deposits were for artwork, no one believes that any more, as who would actually by her crap. No other person knows about this account or anything concerning it - yet.

The total amount involved is Thirty million New Israeli Shekels only [30,000.000.00 NIS] and we wish to transfer this money into safe foreigners account abroad. But while I know many foreigners who give me money, I don't know any foreigner who will keep their mouth shut; I am only contacting you as a foreigner because this money cannot be approved to a local person here, but to a foreigner who has information about the account, which I shall give to you upon your positive response. I am revealing this to you with believe in God that you will never let me down in this business, you are the first and the only person that I am contacting for this business, so please reply urgently so that I will inform you the next step to take urgently.

At the conclusion of this business, you will be given 40% of the total amount, 50% will be for us while 10% will be for the expenses both parties may incurred during this transaction. PLEASE, TREAT THIS PROPOSAL AS TOP SECRET.

I look forward to your earliest reply

Best Regards,

PM Ehud Olmert

Jerusalem, Israel

Birthday ballyhoo and blues

Ain't it good to know that you've got a friend
When people can be so cold
They'll hurt you, and desert you
And take your soul if you let them
Oh, but don't you let them

You just call out my name
And you know wherever I am
I'll come running to see you again
Winter, spring, summer or fall
All you have to do is call
And I'll be there
You've got a friend

Such a schlocky theme song for the 60th birthday bash. Oy veh. George Bush and Ehud Olmert made lame duck squawks at one another in front of a gathering of world leaders,who were also subjected to what analyst Calev Ben-David of the Jerusalem Post described as "inappropriate homo-erotic interpretations of Carole King." (hmmmm...a bit harsh, Calev.)
Yesterday, after a sweaty day-trip to the ancient fortress Masada, one of the ultimate Zionist symbols, Bush addressed the Knesset about how peace is nigh in the 'hood, give or take another sixty years. "You have raised a modern society in the promised land," Bush told the legislators, minus the Arab MKS. "And you have built a mighty democracy that will endure forever and can always count on America to stand at its side."
Next the Bushes hosted their own grand reception at the Israel Museum. (Somehow Izzy Bee got snubbed and received no invitation. Sniff.) A fragment of one 2000 year old scroll at the museum reportedly was shown to Dubya, and on it was penned a famous line from the Prophet Isaiah: “They shall beat their swords into plowshares.” Not that Israelis desire any American plowshares, mind you. On their birthday wish list, under perceived threat from a soon-to-be-nuclear Iran, Israelis definitely want more weapons.
Focusing on that verse is no more ironic than, say, when the New York Slim-Fast tycoon, S. Daniel Abraham, was hauled in yesterday by Jerusalem police for questioning about donations to the fat-cat politician, Olmert. Abraham denied any wrong-doing and insisted Olmert is "one of the best prime ministers we have ever head." Right. Just about as credible as Whoopi Goldberg's endorsement of his Creamy Milk Chocolate shake. So many centuries out of Egypt, but still in denial (d' Nile), as Ms Goldberg might say. But I digress.

Israel's official birthday festivities have continued for three days, with bloated presidential convoys of 30 cars clogging the narrow streets and a spy drone similar to the one from Erez crossing tethered in the sky above the King David Hotel like an albino guppy gone astray. It took five transport planes from the states to bring in Bush's miscellaneous paraphernalia to one of the most security-conscious countries on the planet.
To many Jerusalemites, there is something off-putting and unsettling about gorgeous fireworks booming overhead on the very same day an Iranian-made Grad rocket struck a shopping mall in Ashkelon, maiming 15 shoppers, and five Gazans were killed by IDF actions. Save the pretty booms til the conflict is done. These triumphalist ceremonies may come back to bite us. It is insensitive: they coincide with what the Palestinians call their "Naqba", or catastrophe. SOme 700,000 men, women and children were uprooted from their homes during partition - some fled, some were expelled. So Arabs released 21,915 (to represent 365 days x 60 years) black balloons over the skies of Jerusalem; my Orthodox Jewish neighbor joked that this symbolizes that their grievances are just so much hot air. Amongst them, we spotted a trio of storks gliding on the upcurrents. These big birds might even have been displaced by the presidential helicopter sortie to Masada, where hundreds flock. They appeared mightily confused, and just going in circles. What's the symbolism there, folks?

Bradley Burston, a commentator on Haaretz, acknowledged the Palestinian take on the six decade milestone in a characteristically contrarian style:

It was, all in all, a day to consider what we owe the Palestinians.

Before all else, we owe the Palestinians our respect. They could have rolled over long ago, packed up and headed for Australia, given up. They know that their leaders are execrable, their institutions corrupt and impotent, their ideology self-destructive, their economy in ruin, their international prestige at a nadir.

Still, they are here. Still, they are our occupiers. After 60 years, powerless, in disarray, they occupy our imagination and our politics and our nightmares.

We owe the Palestinians for keeping us honest. We owe the Palestinians for reminding us that we were never alone in this place. We owe the Palestinians what we expect from them: the recognition that they deserve, as a real people.

We owe the Palestinians a state.

Israelity bites.

addendum:
Check out the special report by the Economist's brilliant Jerusalem correspondent, Gideon Lichfield. One of the finest summations of Israel at 60, it is available here.
The prolific Lichfield also blogs away sporadically at fugitive peace.

Does Olmert Make You Gag?

The timing couldn't have been worse. Bigwigs are jetting in for Israel's 60th birthday bash, yet Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's dodgy propensity for bribes and favors takes the proud sheen off of the festivities. It's not the first time the top combover has sullied the Promised Land with his distasteful sleaze factor, and he may well wriggle free of any penalties. Definitely, he makes Israeli journalists gag. Or tried to with a domestic gag order. The veteran journalist Alan Abbey explains:

Gag Orders, Global Media and the Internet


When an Israeli court said Israeli media couldn't cover an investigation of Ehud Olmert, the NY Post broke the ice.
In Israel, police are investigating Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for allegedly accepting bribes or illegal campaign contributions in the late 1990s from an American businessman. The police requested -- and an Israeli court granted -- a gag order on media coverage of this investigation. But that gag order is the latest victim of the Internet and global media.
Ostensibly, this gag order was intended to enable Israeli police to continue their investigation unimpeded. The Israeli media are notorious for reporting every scrap of information, rumor and innuendo. In this case, the gag order did not stop leaks and speculation about the case, including what may or may not have been learned, the potential political impact -- even though details were missing and few hard facts were available.

The Israeli court gag order left the media here winking, nodding, and nudging their audiences by saying, "We know what is going on, but you don't." But even that didn't last. On May 6 the New York Post broke the story of the name of the alleged "bag man" for Olmert cash payments. They followed it up on May 7 with a few new details. Also on May 7 the New York Times weighed in with a better story.

By May 8, the pressure on the Israeli cops and courts from domestic media was too much, and the gag order was partially lifted. What kind of pressure? Well, the Israeli was media saying things like, "We can't tell you what's going on, but go to the New York Post."

The gag order was officially lifted May 8 at 11 p.m. Israeli time. Minutes later the media went public with stories that had been sitting in the can for two days, and Olmert made a statement on TV addressing the matter and declaring his innocence.

Since then, the mystery donor Morris Talansky has claimed the money he gave to Olmert wasn't a bribe and pooh-poohed reports that he was scared Olmert might harm him.

In an interview in English with Israel's Channel 10 news, Talansky referred to Olmert as the o"prince of the Likud" and ridiculed speculations that he was part of a right-wing conspiracy to sabotage Olmert and his peace talks with the Palestinians.
Quite a sideshow for Rupert Murdoch, Jon Voight, George W. Bush and the bunch who are here to celebrate six decades of the Jewish democracy. Israelity bites.

The Shift Toward an Israeli-Syrian Agreement

The Middle East, already monstrously complex, grew more complex last week.
George Friedman, the Strategic Forecast analyst, pens a guest column while Izzy Bee is briefly out of the world's hottest and holiest region.

First, there were strong indications that both Israel and Syria were prepared to engage in discussions on peace. That alone is startling enough. But with the indicators arising in the same week that the United States decided to reveal that the purpose behind Israel’s raid on Syria in September 2007 was to destroy a North Korean-supplied nuclear reactor, the situation becomes even more baffling.

But before we dive into the what-will-be, let us first explain how truly bizarre things have gotten. On April 8 we wrote about how a number of seemingly unconnected events were piecing themselves into a pattern that might indicate an imminent war, a sequel to the summer 2006 Lebanon conflict. This mystery in the Middle East has since matured greatly, but in an unexpected direction. Israeli-Syrian peace talks — serious Israeli-Syrian peace talks — are occurring.

First, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the Israeli media that Israel had been talking to the Syrians, and then that “Very clearly we want peace with the Syrians and are taking all manners of action to this end. They know what we want from them, and I know full well what they want from us.” Then Syrian President Bashar al Assad publicly acknowledged that negotiations with Syria were taking place. Later, a Syrian minister appeared on Al Jazeera and said that, “Olmert is ready for peace with Syria on the grounds of international conditions, on the grounds of the return of the Golan Heights to Syria.” At almost exactly the same moment, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said that, “If Israel is serious and wants peace, nothing will stop the renewal of peace talks. What made this statement really interesting was that it was made in Tehran, standing next to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, an ally of Syria whose government rejects the very concept of peace with Israel.

We would have expected the Syrians to choose another venue to make this statement, and we would have expected the Iranians to object. It didn’t happen. We waited for a blistering denial from Israel. Nothing came; all that happened was that Israeli spokesmen referred journalists to Olmert’s previous statement. Clearly something was on the table. The Turks had been pressing the Israelis to negotiate with the Syrians, and the Israelis might have been making a gesture to placate them, but the public exchanges clearly went beyond that point. This process could well fail, but it gave every appearance of being serious.

According to the existing understanding of the region’s geopolitical structure, an Israeli-Syrian peace deal is impossible.
The United States and Iran are locked into talks over the future of Iraq, and both regularly use their respective allies in Israel and Syria to shape those negotiations. An Israeli-Syrian peace would at the very least inconvenience American and Iranian plans.
Any peace deal would require defanging Hezbollah. But Hezbollah is not simply a Syrian proxy with an independent streak, it is also an Iranian proxy. So long as Iran is Syria’s only real ally in the Muslim world, such a step seems inimical to Syrian interests.
Hezbollah is also deeply entwined into the economic life of Lebanon — and in Lebanon’s drug production and distribution network — and threatening the relationship with Hezbollah would massively impact Damascus’ bottom line.
From the other side, Syria cannot accept a peace that does not restore its control over the Golan Heights, captured during the 1967 war. Since this patch of ground overlooks some of Israel’s most densely populated regions, it seems unnatural that Israel ever would even consider such a trade.
Forget issues of Zionism or jihadism, or even simple bad blood; the reality is that any deal between Israel and Syria clashes with the strategic interests of both sides, making peace is impossible. Or is it? Talks are happening nonetheless, meaning one of two things is true: Either Olmert and Assad have lost it, or this view of reality is wrong.

Let’s reground this discussion away from what everyone — ourselves included — thinks they know and go back to the basics, namely, the geopolitical realities in which Israel and Syria exist.

Israel
Peace with Egypt and Jordan means Israel is secure on its eastern and southern frontiers. Its fundamental problem is counterinsurgency in Gaza and at times in the West Bank. Its ability to impose a military solution to this problem is limited, so it has settled for separating itself from the Palestinians and on efforts to break up the Palestinian movement into different factions. The split in the Palestinian community between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza helped this strategy immensely, dividing the Palestinians geographically, ideologically, economically and politically. The deeper the intra-Palestinian conflict is, the less of a strategic threat to Israel the Palestinians can be. It is hardly a beautiful solution — and dividing the Palestinians does not reduce the security burden on Israel — but it is manageable.

Israel does not perceive Syria as a serious threat. Not only is the Syrian military a pale shadow of Israeli capability, Israel does not even consider sacrificing the Golan Heights to weakening the Israeli military meaningfully. The territory has become the pivot of public discussions, but losing it hasn’t been a real problem for Israel since the 1970s. In today’s battlefield environment, artillery on the heights would rapidly be destroyed by counter-battery fire, helicopter gunships or aircraft. Indeed, the main threat to Israel from Syria is missiles. Damascus now has one of the largest Scud missile and surface-to-surface missile arsenals in the region — and those can reach Israel from far beyond the Golan Heights regardless of where the Israeli-Syrian political border is located. Technological advances — even those from just the last decade — have minimized the need for a physical presence on that territory that was essential militarily decades ago .

The remaining threat to Israel is posed by Lebanon, where Hezbollah has a sufficient military capability to pose a limited threat to northern Israel, as was seen in the summer of 2006. Israel can engage and destroy a force in Lebanon, but the 1982-2002 Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon vividly demonstrated that the cost-benefit ratio to justify an ongoing presence simply does not make sense.

At the current time, Israel’s strategic interests are twofold. First, maintain and encourage the incipient civil war between Hamas and Fatah. The key to this is to leverage tensions between neighboring Arab states and the Palestinians. And this is easy. The Hashemite government of Jordan detests the West Bank Palestinians because more than three-quarters of the population of Jordan is Palestinian, but the Hashemite king rather likes being king. Egypt equally hates the Gaza Palestinians as Hamas’ ideological roots lie in the Muslim Brotherhood — a group whose ideology not only contributed to al Qaeda’s formation, but also that of groups who have exhibited a nasty habit of assassinating Egyptian presidents.

The second Israeli strategic interest is finding a means of neutralizing any threat from Lebanon without Israel being forced into war — or worse yet, into an occupation of Lebanon. The key to this strategy lies with the other player in this game.

Syria
Ultimately Syria only has its western border to worry about. To the east is the vast desert border with Iraq, an excellent barrier to attack for both nations. To the north are the Turks who, if they chose, could swallow Syria in a hard day’s work and be home in time for coffee. Managing that border is a political matter, not a military one.

That leaves the west. Syria does not worry too much about an Israeli invasion. It is not that Damascus thinks that Israel is incapable of such an operation — Israel would face only a slightly more complicated task of eliminating Syria than Turkey would — but that the al Assads know full well that Israel is happy with them in power. The al Assads and their fellow elites hail from the Alawite sect of Islam, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that the Sunnis consider apostate. Alawite rule in Syria essentially is secular, and the government has a historic fear of an uprising by the majority Sunnis.

The Israelis know that any overthrow of the al Assads would probably land Israel with a radical Sunni government on its northeastern frontier. From Israel’s point of view, it is far better to deal with a terrified and insecure Syrian government more concerned with maintaining internal control than a confident and popular Syrian government with the freedom to look outward.

Just as Syria’s defensive issues vis-à-vis Israel are not what they seem, neither are Syrian tools for dealing with Israel in an offensive manner as robust as most think.

Syria is not particularly comfortable with the entities that pose the largest security threats to Israel, namely, the main Palestinian factions. Damascus has never been friendly to the secular Fatah movement, with which it fought many battles in Lebanon; nor is it comfortable with the more fundamentalist Sunni Hamas. (Syria massacred its own fundamentalists during the 1980s.) So while the Syrians have dabbled in Palestinian politics, they have never favored a Palestinian state. In fact, it should be recalled that when Syria first invaded Lebanon in 1975, it was against the Palestinians and in support of Lebanese Christians.

That invasion — as well as most Syrian operations in Lebanon — was not about security, but about money. Lebanon, the descendent of Phoenicia, has always been a vibrant economic region (save when there is war). It is the terminus of trade routes from the east and south and the door to the Mediterranean basin. It is a trading and banking hub, with Beirut in particular as the economic engine of the region. Without Beirut and Lebanon, Syria is an isolated backwater. With it, Damascus is a major player.

As such, Syria’s closest ties among Israel’s foes are not with the two major indigenous Palestinian factions, but with the Shiite group Hezbollah. The Syrians have a somewhat tighter religious affinity with Hezbollah, as well as a generation of complex business dealings with the group’s leaders. But its support for Hezbollah is multifaceted, and anti-Israeli tendencies are only one aspect of the relationship. And Hezbollah is much more important to Syria as a tool for managing Damascus’ affairs in Lebanon.

The Basis of a Deal
Israel and Syria’s geopolitical interests diverge less than it might appear. By itself, Syria poses no conventional threat to Israel. Syria is dangerous only in the context of a coalition with Egypt. In 1973, fighting on two fronts, the Syrians were a threat. With Egypt neutralized now and behind the buffer in the Sinai, Syria poses no threat. As for unconventional weapons, the Israelis indicated with their bombing of the Syrian research facility in September 2007 that they know full well how — and are perfectly willing unilaterally — to take that option off Damascus’ table.

Since neither side wants a war with the other — Israel does not want to replace the Alawites, and the Alawites are not enamored of being replaced — the issue boils down to whether Israel and Syria can coordinate their interests in Lebanon. Israel has no real economic interests in Lebanon. Its primary interest is security — to make certain that forces hostile to Israel cannot use Lebanon as a base for launching attacks. Syria has no real security interests so long its economic primacy is guaranteed. And neither country wants to see an independent Palestinian state.

The issue boils down to Lebanon. In a sense, the Israelis had an accommodation with Syria over Lebanon when Israel withdrew. It ceded economic pre-eminence in Lebanon to the Syrians. In return, the Syrians controlled Hezbollah and in effect took responsibility for Israeli security in return for economic power. It was only after Syria withdrew from Lebanon under U.S. pressure that Hezbollah evolved into a threat to Israel, precipitating the 2006 conflict.

This was a point on which Israel and the United States didn’t agree. The United States, fighting in Iraq, wanted an additional lever with which to try to control Syrian support for militants fighting in Iraq. They saw Lebanon as a way to punish Syria for actions in Iraq. But the Israelis saw themselves as having to live with the consequences of that withdrawal. Israel understood that Syria’s withdrawal shifted the burden of controlling Hezbollah to Israel — something that could not be achieved without an occupation.

What appears to be under consideration between the supposed archrivals, therefore, is the restoration of the 2005 status quo in Lebanon. The Syrians would reclaim their position in Lebanon, unopposed by Israel. In return, the Syrians would control Hezbollah. For the Syrians, this has the added benefit that by controlling Hezbollah and restraining it in the south, Syria would have both additional strength on the ground in Lebanon, as well as closer economic collaboration — on more favorable terms — with Hezbollah. For Syria, Hezbollah is worth more as a puppet than as a heroic anti-Israeli force.

This is something Israel understands. In the last fight between Israel and Syria in Lebanon, there were different local allies: Israel had the South Lebanese Army. The Syrians were allied with the Christian Franjieh clan. In the end, both countries dumped their allies. Syria and Israel have permanent interests in Lebanon. They do not have permanent allies.

The Other Players
The big loser in this game, of course, would be the Lebanese. But that is more complicated than it appears. Many of the Lebanese factions — including most of the Christian clans — have close relations with the Syrians. Moreover, the period of informal Syrian occupation was a prosperous time. Lebanon is a country of businessmen and militia, sometimes the same. The stability the Syrians imposed was good for business.

The one faction that would clearly oppose this would be Hezbollah. It would be squeezed on all sides. Ideologically speaking, constrained from confronting Israel, its place in the Islamic sun would be undermined. Economically speaking, Hezbollah would be forced into less favorable economic relations with the Syrians than it enjoyed on its own. And politically speaking, Hezbollah would have the choice of fighting the Syrians (not an attractive option) or of becoming a Syrian tool. Either way, Hezbollah would have to do something in response to any rumors floating about of a Syrian deal with the Israelis. And given the quality of Syrian intelligence in these matters, key Hezbollah operatives opposed to such a deal might find themselves blown up. Perhaps they already have.

Iran will not be happy about all this. Tehran has invested a fair amount of resources in bulking up Hezbollah, and will not be pleased to see the militia shift from Syrian management to Syrian control. But in the end, what can Iran do? It cannot support Hezbollah directly, and even if it were to attempt to undermine Damascus, those Syrians most susceptible to Tehran’s Shiite-flavored entreaties are the Alawites themselves.

The other player that at the very least would be uneasy about all of this is the United States. The American view of Syria remains extremely negative, still driven by the sense that the Syrians continue to empower militants in Iraq. Certainly that aid — and that negative U.S. feeling — is not as intense as it was two years ago, but the Americans might not feel that this is the right time for such a deal. Thus, the release of the information on the Syrian reactor might well have been an attempt to throw a spoke in the wheel of the Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

That might not be necessary. Nothing disappears faster than Syrian-Israeli negotiations. In this case, however, both countries have fundamental geopolitical interests at stake. Israel wants to secure its northern frontier without committing its troops into Lebanon. The Syrians want to guarantee their access to the economic possibilities in Lebanon. Neither care about the Golan Heights. The Israelis don’t care what happens in Lebanon so long as it doesn’t explode in Israel. The Syrians don’t care what happens to the Palestinians so long as it doesn’t spread onto their turf.

Deals have been made on less. Israel and Syria are moving toward a deal that would leave a lot of players in the region — including Iran — quite unhappy. Given this deal has lots of uneasy observers, including Iran, the United States, Hezbollah, the Palestinians and others, it could blow apart with the best will in the world. And given that this is Syria and Israel, the best will isn’t exactly in abundant supply.

Spring fever, Israeli style

Birdsong, blossoms and sunbeams -- spring definitely has sprung in Israel. Fields of wildflowers --red anemones, wild mustard and blue field iris --bloom beyond Jerusalem's Peace Forest and scent the fresh breezes. Alas, there's not much love in the air yet. Smiles are scarce in a place where rancor and mistrust rule. Blood still is the overriding odor, at least subliminally.

Down in the dunes of Holon, south of Tel Aviv, the locals are reeling after a hot-headed guy was murdered over a parking spot dispute

"Today people murder each other over anything - a dog, a woman, so what's so surprising that this happened?," one mother told a reporter.

After a brief weekend lull, the violence has ramped up again. Not a big surprise. A Qassam rocket struck Ashkelon yesterday, shortly after the departure of the Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and the IDF forces killed five Palestinian gunmen in the West Bank and arrested 30 more in Nablus.

Edginess is almost palpable. For days, local police in Jerusalem have refused to release the body of Abu Ala Dheim, the gunman killer who killed eight teens at Mercaz Harav Yeshiva and wounded 10 more. Authorities fear that if more than 5 family members attend his funeral, it may erupt into a media feeding frenzy or a literal bloodbath. They require burial by night with no martyr's fanfare. A fansite posted on Facebook has drawn condemnation for praising the horrific slaying as "an heroic act" across graphic photos of the dead students from the Zionist seminary.



According to television news reports,some yeshiva students have threatened to take revenge for the school shooting spree by attacking a senior Palestinian official at the al Aqsa Mosque, the volatile sacred site which Jews call the Temple Mount. An attack at this mosque could prompt a outbreak of violence across Israel and the Palestinian territories. Israeli police say they have prepared for the possibility of vengeance, but so far there have been no arrests. Demands for 100 new houses to be erected in settlements for each murdered student are frequently heard; expansion in the settlement was officially announced, much to the scorn of peacemaker Condi Rice.

So the next thing on the agenda is the arrival of America's Darth Vader... America's Vice President Dick Cheney is on the way to "prod for peace" in the Holy Land. Republican presidential candidate John McCain may show up as well, we are told, to further establish his security credentials while he woos Jewish voters.

Israelity bites

Winograd winds up

Gulp.
Ehud Olmert has squeaked through after a probe into the misconduct of the Lebanon War underlined failings in the military and government leadership. The political fallout still is reverberating. Ynet sums it up here. The 500 page report lambasts the leaders for a lack of victory.

"We found serious failures and shortcomings in the highest level of the military command, especially in the ground forces, the quality of deployment, preparedness, launching and implementation of decisions and orders," Judge Winograd was quoted by the wires.

Yet his 500-page report appeared to give an important boost to Olmert, who had faced the possibility of harsher criticism that could have threatened his job and his stated goal of signing a peace treaty with the Palestinians within a year.

Officials in Olmert's office said they were optimistic after an initial glimpse of the report. Olmert's spokesman, Jacob Galanti, was quoted by Israel TV as saying the prime minister's office was "breathing a sigh of relief."

Winograd said a last-minute ground offensive in Lebanon failed because it did not improve Israel's position ahead of a cease-fire and added the army was not prepared for that battle. [The bodycount was high for a quickie war. More than 1,000 Lebanese were killed, most of them civilians, plus about 160 Israelis.]

More than 30 Israeli soldiers were killed in that final offensive launched shortly before a U.N.-brokered truce went into effect. Olmert had come under severe criticism for ordering the battle, despite his contention that the offensive improved Israel's position before the cease-fire.

Winograd Snow Job and Israeli Normality

Afternoon dusting over the Old City looks calm before the political dust-up begins in West Jerusalem.


There's a kind of hush that arrives with snowfall. In Jerusalem, the snow already transmogrified to sleet/slush twelve hours into the day and, with special effects from the occasional apocalyptical crack of thunder, it seems other-wordly, not like the muddled east we're accustomed to. From my window, over the Hinom Valley, it appears that Hell (Gahanna) literally may freeze over if this keeps up. It's all blanketed with white.

Talking about a snowball's chance in Hell, there's Olmert and the Winograd report coming up at 5pm. Will he survive? The Prime Minister is braced to be raked over the coals for not producing a victory during the last Lebanon War (or,as the conflict was referred to elsewhere, the "disporoportionate response" that still lost lives and reputations.)
Some would say the country's martial navel-gazing's a tad abnormal.

Well, Israel's abnormality, writes Mary Dejevsky in the London Independent, is changing.

Hermetic security gives the country a fortress-like quality, which is exacerbated by the almost completed barrier along the length of its eastern border. The duration of military service, for both sexes, means that you see many more people in uniform – and armed – than in most advanced countries. There is a gruff and basic efficiency that bespeaks a country still at war. And a pervasive, often irritating, sense of rightness: the past that justifies the present.

In just a couple of years, though, some of the hardest edges seem to have softened. Those young people in uniform look a little more relaxed and less stony-faced about their duty. The ubiquitous weapons are carried just a fraction more casually (which is not necessarily reassuring). There is a greater awareness of demography and neighbourhood, and at state level the response to a crisis is less paranoid. Consider this: when Gazans breached the border into Egypt in their thousands last week, Mr Olmert's response was to meet his Palestinian counterpart. It was not to rush troops to the southern frontier, nor yet to reoccupy Gaza.

Perhaps the Second Lebanon War was not the defeat it appeared. Hezbollah was driven from the border; attacks on Israel ceased. But Israel's two soldiers remained in captivity. And anything less than complete victory was a shock to Israeli confidence. Rather than uniting the country against the enemy, this war sowed division. It also prompted salutary soul-searching about whether tried and tested 20th-century methods would be as effective in the 21st. More self-doubt will greet the Winograd report when it appears.

Olmert slams right-wing displays of hatred

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has launched a vitriolic attack on extreme right-wingers, responding to a campaign to release a political assassin and incitement against talks with the Palestinians.

Olmert, who yesterday said he may be able to conclude a peace deal with the Palestinians by the end of George Bush's term, vowed that such antics would not dissuade him from persevering with negotiations.

"We are prepared to make compromises because security is based on peace and peace requires painful compromises," he said in a speech to a managers' conference in Israel's commercial capital Tel Aviv.

"We will combat extremist phenomena with zero tolerance.

"I am convinced that most people in Israel, be they Jewish or Arab, secular or religious, do not accept the flood of hatred eating away at the democratic foundations of our society," Olmert added.

Extreme right-wingers are campaigning for the release of Yigal Amir, the extremist Jewish assassin who gunned down former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin 12 years ago for his policy of reconciliation with the Palestinians.

Olmert also slammed protests from Jerusalem football fans, who booed and cat-called through a minute's silence to honour Rabin at the start of a game late on Sunday, as "intolerable" behaviour from a "handful of people."

Around 2,000 extreme-right Israelis, many of them Jewish settlers from the occupied West Bank, on Sunday staged the first significant protest against Israeli-Palestinian negotiations ahead of a US-sponsored peace conference.

Olmert also condemned posters put up by right-wing activists that depict Israeli President Shimon Peres in the black and white keffiyeh headdress that was a trademark of the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

"What do such posters mean? That you think the president of Israel does not defend the interests of Israel but of Arabs?" he hammered.

Posters depicted Rabin in the same way during a campaign of right-wing incitement that preceded his assassination in 1995.
(AFP report)

Olmert announces he has Prostate Cancer

Timing is everything, and the latest move from Jerusalem raises questions, as well as sympathy. The Israeli prime minister's newly announced cancer surgery is likely to be another reason to push back peace talks in Annapolis. Ehud Olmert disclosed on Monday that he has prostate cancer, but that the disease is not life threatening and he will continue to fulfill his duties.

Speaking to a packed news conference in Jerusalem at noon, the Israeli leader said that he will have surgery and that he has "full chances" of recovery. He said the disease was caught at an early stage.

Olmert, 62, took office in March 2006 after his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, suffered a debilitating stroke and lapsed into a coma.

The prime minister made his announcement during a press conference in Jerusalem.

The news comes at a delicate time in Mideast peacemaking, just weeks ahead of a U.S.-brokered summit designed to relaunch long-stalled peace talks. It was not clear how or if Olmert's illness would affect his already troubled efforts to frame a common outline with the Palestinians ahead of the conference, scheduled to take place in Annapolis, Md., in either November or December.

The prostate is a walnut-shaped gland beneath the base of the penis that makes seminal fluid. Prostate cancer is one of the most common forms of cancer. In most men, it grows so slowly that it will never threaten their lives. Treatment often leads to problems having sex or controlling the bladder, so finding a way to distinguish which tumors can safely be left alone is the field's top priority.

The primary risk factor is age, with the disease commonly striking after a man is after 50.

It can be treated with surgery, radiation therapy, hormonal therapy and occasionally chemotherapy, among other treatments.

Vatican vs Knights Templar

How the mighty fall always makes a great read. In Jerusalem, where the Prime Minister Ehud Olmert himself owns a family flat revamped from a Knights Templar dwelling, the medieval seems like comparatively recent history, so this tale is particularly gripping. Some 700 years after the fact, Pope Benedict XVI has revealed that these Knights were not heretics, despite their bad rep for spitting and kissing. Above is a venerable illustration of non-heretical crusader knights who were burnt at the stake on a Friday the 13th for, ahem, heresy. Peter Popham in Rome reports on the monastic knights who guarded the Al Aqsa mosque, snatched from jihadis, and profited from pilgrims.

One of the most iniquitous chapters in the history of the medieval church was revisited in Rome yesterday when the Vatican publisher Scrinium put on sale facsimiles of the trial of the Knights Templar order, held before Pope Clement V in 1308.

The book is unlikely to turn up in your local Borders': measuring 27 by 22in, printed on artificial parchment with replicas of the original papal seals, it is as close as the publishers can get to the appearance of the original document, which turned up in the Vatican's secret archives in 2001, having been mislaid for more than 300 years.

Academics and fans of Dan Brown's thrillers will be eager to get their hands on the book but it costs ¿5,900 per copy, and most of the 799 copies have already been reserved by specialist libraries. The 800th will be given to the Pope.

It ought to make uncomfortable reading for him. The Knights Templar, the order of monastic knights set up to defend Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, seized during the First Crusade, went into decline after Christians were expelled from the Holy Land in the 13th century. King Philip IV "the Fair" of France owed the order large amounts of money and land; to avoid repaying the debt, he prevailed on Pope Clement V, based in Avignon and dependent on his good offices, to put members on trial for heresy.

The pope tried them, and while he found them guilty of immorality, the key charge of heresy was found to be false. It had been alleged that while in Jerusalem they had been in the custom of spitting on crosses, and underwent an initiation ceremony that involved kissing.

They persuaded the pope and his judges that the spitting was done to prepare themselves for the dissembling they would be obliged to practice if captured by the Saracens, while the kissing was a way of promising complete obedience. The pope accepted their arguments and absolved them of heresy. This, however, did not satisfy Philip. The pope was pressured to reverse his verdict, and the head of the order and his closest associates were burnt at the stake. The order's riches were handed to a rival knightly order, and the surviving knights melted away. It was a demonstration of the power of realpolitik to trump justice.

The order's downfall stimulated the growth of legends and fables about the order. Founded in Jerusalem by veterans of the successful First Crusade of 1096, it was a potent armed force designed to protect Christian pilgrims. When the pope gave it special status – exemption from local laws and taxes and answerable to no one but the pontiff – it soon became uniquely rich and powerful.

The order developed a way for wealthy travellers to pay for services received by leaving lands and wealth at the disposal of a Templar group in Europe.

It believed, as did the Jews, that Al-Aqsa was the site of Solomon's Temple, from which sprung the belief that many holy relics had fallen into its hands. The Turin Shroud, fragments of the Cross and the chalice used by Christ at the Last Supper – the Holy Grail – are among treasures it was popularly believed to have acquired.